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New Binance study confirmed the likely reversal of the cryptocurrency market

The research division of Binance has prepared a new report indicating that a deep correction in the prices of Bitcoin and the overwhelming majority of the remaining altcoins may be behind and the so-called “bottom” is indeed passed. The study also showed the highly correlated nature of the cryptocurrency market due to the “herd mentality” that manifests itself in the later stages of the bull and bear phases. Since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin has grown more than […]

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The research division of Binance has prepared a new report indicating that a deep correction in the prices of Bitcoin and the overwhelming majority of the remaining altcoins may be behind and the so-called “bottom” is indeed passed.

The study also showed the highly correlated nature of the cryptocurrency market due to the “herd mentality” that manifests itself in the later stages of the bull and bear phases.

Since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin has grown by more than 40%, with three-quarters of this growth in April. But even before the first cryptocurrency went up sharply, the altcoin market also showed positive dynamics, which even led to the emergence of the term “altseason”.

One of the main aspects that the researchers pay attention to was the degree of correlation of cryptocurrencies relative to each other. So, the report says that in the bear market in 2018, the internal price correlation increased.

Referring to the phenomenon of joint movement (herd effect), the authors of the report suggest that the irrational behavior of retail investors and the emerging nature of the market as a whole largely contributed to the high internal correlation of cryptocurrencies.

Another important observation of the authors of the report was the relationship between the correlation of altcoin prices in USD and the dynamics of bitcoin prices. Using data from February 2014 to March 2019, the researchers found that periods of high correlation between altcoins [between 0.8 and 1] correspond to a trend reversal for Bitcoin.

The report, however, contains a reservation:

"Given the short history of the cryptocurrency market, it would be premature to say that there is a causal relationship between correlation peaks and market reversals, or that this is in fact a herd effect during the market reversals themselves."

Trying to explain the phenomenon of joint movement, the researchers also compared the structure of investors in the cryptocurrency market on traditional stock exchanges in different countries. As a result, they came to the conclusion that the turnover of funds is significantly higher in China – a phenomenon that the report authors associate with a high share of retail investors in both markets.

So, in 2017, retail investors in Chinese stock exchanges accounted for more than 99.8% of accounts, more than 40% of total capitalization and more than 80% of trading volumes.

Explaining the link between a higher share of retail traders and higher turnover, the authors of the report write:

“In general, non-professional investors tend to be overly confident or too pessimistic about market trends. This leads to an increase in the potential volume of transactions and increased volatility. "

Binance researchers also concluded that participants in the cryptocurrency market are more inclined to "go" only during a bear market, but they become more active during periods of significant price increases.

Thus, the researchers note, the cryptocurrency market is distinguished by the irrationality of the behavior of its participants. This, in turn, leads to the formation of bubbles or an unjustifiably deep fall, which is also reflected on the graphs of correlation rates.

Such a picture, they say at Binance Research, was observed in 2018, when the pessimistic market sentiment reached its peak, and the same scenario can occur even now – the only difference is that in this case, it is turning up.

Recall that earlier in April, well-known trader Peter Brandt came to the conclusion that Bitcoin repeats the same patterns on the chart as in 2015, after which its price increased about 100 times. Thus, he believes, an exponential growth along a similar trajectory can follow.

Arthur Hayes, head of BitMEX, also positively assesses the future: according to him, within the next few years Bitcoin will reach $ 50,000 .

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Bithumb Cryptocurrency Exchange intends to enter the markets of the USA and Japan

Bithumb, one of the largest Bitcoin exchanges in South Korea, in the foreseeable future, may begin to offer services to residents of the United States and Japan. About this in an interview with Cointelegraph said BC Kim, CEO of the Blockchain Exchange Alliance (BXA), which owns the controlling package in Bithumb. According to him, the BXA strategy consists in the so-called reverse merger, involving the purchase of a company whose shares are already […]

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Bithumb, one of the largest Bitcoin exchanges in South Korea, in the foreseeable future, may begin to offer services to residents of the United States and Japan. About this in an interview with Cointelegraph said BC Kim, CEO of the Blockchain Exchange Alliance (BXA), which owns the controlling package in Bithumb.

According to him, the BXA strategy is the so-called reverse merger, involving the purchase of a company whose shares are already being traded on one of the major exchanges. Among those, Kim names the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Such a path may be faster than a traditional IPO, and will also help to significantly reduce the cost of listing on the stock exchange, which can reach $ 6 million.

As Kim says, BXA has already applied for legal support in the United States, and a lawyer from an unnamed firm said that the current regulatory environment allows the company to implement the stated plan.

BXA is also looking for partners in Japan, where it wants to create a joint venture to launch a officially licensed cryptocurrency exchange.

In addition, BC Kim said that he could potentially increase the share of BXA in Bithumb by buying up to 70% of the shares of BTC Holdings, the current operator Bithumb.

Additionally, he touched on the issue of the BXA's own token, which is already traded on the BitMax exchange, noting that its potential listing on Bithumb requires additional legal assessment.

Earlier this week, the Blockchain Exchange Alliance received funding in the amount of $ 200 million from the Japanese blockchain fund ST in the framework of the investment round of series A. As stated, investments will be directed to expanding the geography of Bithumb services, as well as adding new trading pairs to the site.

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The US government plans to increase spending on the blockchain technology 10 times.

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Blockchain will become the main technology for the work of American civil and military government agencies.

The US federal government intends to increase spending on the blockchain 10 times – such data is contained in the report IDC Government Insights. According to the authors of the study, the amount of spending on this direction will increase to $ 123.5 million by the end of 2021, while in 2017 only funds worth $ 10.7 million were allocated.

It is also expected that spending on the implementation of distributed registry technology will also grow at the state and municipal level: in total, they will invest $ 48.2 million in this area over the same period, which is also about 10 times more than in 2017, when these goals were spent 4.4 million dollars.

If we talk about the structure of spending, then at least four times the costs of federal civilian authorities will increase, from less than 20 million to more than 80 million dollars over a specified period. The US Department of Defense will spend up to $ 40 million instead of $ 20 million, as in 2017.

As the head of the IDC research unit, Sean McCarthy, notes:

“We are confident that blockchain solutions will dominate in such issues of government functioning as state property management, identification of citizens at the border, as well as government procurement, when in the latter case everything goes from paper workflow to smart contracts .”

In the near future, much attention will be paid to investment in blockchains to improve logistics, including the deployment of new US military units in the EU countries. In addition, the distributed registry technology will continue its intensive distribution in financial transactions.

Publication date 20/04/2019
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The State Duma and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation proposed to replace the reserves of the US dollar by a cryptocurrency

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Russian commodity companies have appealed to the State Duma and the Central Bank with a proposal to implement in the country the concept of steylcoin – cryptocurrency , the value of which is tied to real assets. This was announced by the head of the Duma Committee on the Financial Market, Anatoly Aksakov, during a plenary session at the Yalta International Economic Forum.

Aksakov told :

“Serious Russian resource companies have turned to us in the State Duma, to the Central Bank with a proposal to implement the idea of steyblockcoins – these are cryptotools based on a real asset. And so, in the opinion of these serious businessmen, the stableblocks will just allow replacing the dollar in mutual settlements. So we are moving towards this. ”

Aksakov noted that there is no need to set guidelines for the time period for the refusal of the dollar in international settlements, but it is necessary to create conditions for this.

“Calculations in national currencies are growing, of course, not as fast as we would like. But, say, with China, they are already close to 25%. More recently, it was almost zero. In the Eurasian Union, calculations already exceed 80%. ”

He added that in Russia the structure of international reserves has changed significantly.

“The structure of international reserves has changed significantly: if dollar assets accounted for about 60% of our international reserves, now they are 22%. On the other hand, the share of yuan, gold has significantly increased – this is just the answer to the fact that sanctions have been taken against our country. ”

As he wrote, in January 2019, Bloobmerg reported that the Russian Central Bank, actively selling dollars from its reserves and “shifting” to other currencies, bought a quarter of all world reserves of the yuan.

The politically determined course of dedollarization led to the fact that Russia began to get rid of American securities, which were previously regarded by Russian financial officials as highly liquid and minimally risky. Already in the middle of 2018, Russia got rid of half of US debt, selling them for yuan.

The problem, however, is that in the same year of 2018, the yuan devalued against the dollar by 5.7%, so the dollars sold for the yuan supported the Chinese financial system, but eased Russian reserves by 670 billion rubles. According to Bloobmerg, the Russian Central Bank lost exactly that amount in rubles on exchange differences between the yuan and the dollar last year. The United States did not lose a cent.

Today, no country in the world has such a share of RMB in its reserves as Russia, because, despite the size of its economy, China remains a developing country with not the most reliable currency, which the yuan demonstrated in 2018.

As for the national steyblekoinov, tied to the real assets, which spoke Aksakov, this idea, of course, is not new. In February 2019, he voiced the opinion of the head of the Energia corporation, former Energy Minister Igor Yusufov, who is in favor of creating the Russian “oil cryptocurrency” .

According to the ex-head of the Federal Securities Commission of Russia Igor Kostikov, not only oil and gas, but also any resources that are exchangeable can be connected to cryptocurrency.

Oleg Abelev, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, agrees with them. According to him, from a technological point of view, Russia has not yet matured before introducing cryptocurrency for oil and gas into its calculations, but from an economic point of view, this thesis is not without reason.

However, Abelev notes :

“We run into the fact that digital financial assets in Russia are outside the law. But sooner or later, the existence of such assets should be recognized and the legislation regulating the life of cryptocurrency must be adopted, ”the economist is sure.

Publication date 20/04/2019
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Name Price24H (%)
Bitcoin (BTC)
$5,314.00
0.36%
Ethereum (ETH)
$173.11
-0.87%
XRP (XRP)
$0.328277
-0.90%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
$300.71
-2.57%
EOS (EOS)
$5.44
-0.56%
Stellar (XLM)
$0.115235
-0.63%
Litecoin (LTC)
$81.24
-1.31%
Cardano (ADA)
$0.076978
-2.32%
Tether (USDT)
$1.00
-0.11%
Monero (XMR)
$69.91
-0.14%
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