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Moment of truth: Bitcoin leaves the “triangle” completing the consolidation phase

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For almost three months, the Bitcoin (BTC) chart has been drawing a typical technical analysis figure – a triangle. Now this figure is close to completion, and in the coming days a new major movement is likely. But where?

At the peak reached on June 26, the Bitcoin exchange rate approached $ 14,000 – it has not been so high since January 2018. But after only 3 weeks, on July 17, BTC was already "resting from the jump" a little above $ 9,000. Since then, the first cryptocurrency has not gone beyond the limits of this range.

A lingering correction always creates uncertainty and anxiety in the market, especially when it comes to volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies . Traders and analysts know that after a long consolidation of the price at about one level (and now Bitcoin has been dancing around $ 10,000 for a long time), the price makes a big jerk covering a distance comparable to the width of the consolidation.

The triangle is one of the most classic "correctional" figures. Thus, after exiting the existing triangle, bitcoin can either return to historical highs or collapse to the levels of the beginning of “cryptocurrency”.

But any market consists of real traders with real money, and behind each figure on the chart there is a change of mood of large groups of people with large capitals. And all price movements are generated by events in the real world, even if they become known later than the movement itself.

News background

What economic, social and political factors today may be decisive for the movement of bitcoin up or down?

Many associate the “crypto spring” of 2019 with the development of corporate cryptocurrencies of social networks – TON (recently launched a test network ) and Libra . But in reality, the development of these projects is unlikely to have a positive impact on Bitcoin and other independent cryptocurrencies: social network tokens are centralized, dependent on parent corporations and regulators. And at the same time, they are very weakly connected with public blockchains . Rather, their successful launch will take away some of the audience and money from Bitcoin: many investors may prefer regulated tokens. But now, these projects are facing active opposition.

Institutional investors, on the other hand, are still interested in the cryptocurrency market. This is evidenced by the ongoing attempts to bring cryptocurrency ETFs to the market (regulated mutual funds from one or several assets traded on stock exchanges), and the growing volumes of Bitcoin futures trading on CME , and the creation of new platforms for trading already delivered futures.

Perhaps the last factor promises the most positive dynamics: after all, settlements on delivery contracts require the purchase of real bitcoins, and they will have to be taken either from the market or from large holders. One way or another, the demand for bitcoin will increase. The first of these platforms, Bakkt, was launched yesterday . This is a significant news feed to exit the protracted consolidation.

We should not discount trade wars and growing political tensions, and signs of an impending recession in Europe, and perhaps a new wave of devaluation of fiat currencies. For Bitcoin, this will be another test for the status of a “protective asset”: has the cryptocurrency matured in order to compete with gold and other “shelters”?

Mining capacities and demand for equipment, and the process of accumulation and concentration of bitcoins continue to grow . A little more than six months remain until the next halving of the award to BTC miners. All of these indirect factors also contribute to the future growth of bitcoin.

What does the BTC chart mean?

Below are two bitcoin charts over the past few months. On the first – a daily chart with a triangle against the backdrop of growth since December last year, called "cryptocurrency", on a logarithmic scale:

As you can see on the chart, the main scenario assumes continued growth, since against the background of long-term movement, the current correction looks quite modest. But markets are unpredictable, and alternative scenarios always exist, all the more so as bearish sentiment intensifies during the correction.

This same triangle is depicted in a larger close-up on a 12-hour chart:

For the “wave”, this triangle can be considered exemplary: the classical lines 0-BD and AC- (E) are observed and throughout the whole figure there is a constant drop in trading volumes. Now the lines are getting closer to convergence, which means that the spring is tightened and the breakthrough is getting closer.

But the “red” scenario, which suggests the development of correction, in the current structure looks no less convincing, especially since the upper line has a steeper slope. This means that the forces of the “bulls” and “bears” are approximately equal, and the scenario of going up makes only a higher-level picture a priority.

Exchange glasses are more full in the direction of purchase, but with a strong downward movement, many traders will cancel orders and may even open speculative positions for sale. Consequently, the situation will remain tense at least until the “go-ahead” for bidding at Bakkt, which is expected tonight Moscow time.

Where will Bitcoin go tomorrow?

Nobody knows this, not even Satoshi Nakamoto. But the fact that another major movement is brewing, we can speak with confidence. The longer the lull, the stronger the storm. Today, her signs are visible more clearly.

Publication date 09.24.2019
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Institutionals bet on bitcoin growth, positions on BTC futures doubled

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One of the indicators that signal a possible change in the price of bitcoin is the number of open futures positions on the Chicago SME exchange.

In October 2019, institutional investors doubled the cost of long positions in BTC futures contracts , the Cointelegraph reports.

Institutional Investors Interested in BTC

According to a study conducted by analysts on October 22, the estimated value of the long positions of institutional investors rose to a value above 1000 bitcoins, compared with data on October 1, when this value fell below 500 BTC.

Data on long-term futures on the CME exchange indicate a turning point in the downward interest of the institutional, outlined in September 2019. The sharp collapse coincided with the launch date of physically delivered bitcoin futures from the Bakkt platform , when interest fell from 1300 VTC to below 500 bitcoins.

Analysts at Skew Markets have additionally indicated that institutional investors include:

"… pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds and investment portfolio managers."

Such analytical data may indicate the continuing desire of large investors to enter the cryptocurrency market.

Recall, the head of CFTC believes that next year, the market may begin to trade futures on Ethereum (ETH) . He also noted that in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, other cryptocurrencies can also be classified as goods.

Publication date 10/23/2019
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Tim Draper believes that Ripple coin is preparing for a sharp increase in

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The investor, Bitcoin bull Tim Draper, believes that the current situation in the Ripple market can be called the “calm before the storm” – in his opinion, in the near future, the XRP rate may suffer explosive growth.

During his communication with the participants of the crypto market at the Quora forum, Draper noted that, given the three-fold increase in the Bitcoin exchange rate over the past 5 months, it can be expected that the Ripple coin will also demonstrate similar behavior.

According to the investor, the price of XRP should have already increased to about $ 0.6 or $ 0.9, taking into account all the latest developments of the project and the conclusion of new partnerships. Draper drew attention to the fact that the project is constantly improving its technology for cross-border payments. Moreover, Ripple belongs to the largest SBI corporation, which includes such a serious company as R3. So, according to the investor, everything indicates that now there is only a “calm before the storm”, that is, a calm before the explosive increase in the value of the coin.

Meanwhile, Ripple is developing further. On the eve it became known about the intention of the project to expand its presence in Washington. Brad Garlinhouse, CEO of Ripple, noted that this step will allow the company to be closer to regulators, to train them on the principle of operation of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies.

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Opera became the first browser in which the built-in bitcoin-wallet

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Opera web browser developers have added support for TRON bitcoin payments and cryptocurrencies to their application for Android devices, CoinDesk writes.

From now on, Opera users will be able to make payments in Bitcoin (BTC) directly from the digital wallet built into the application and interact with decentralized applications on the TRON network. According to the company, these features can help attract new holders to its cryptocurrencies from its database of 300 million users.

“Most people heard about Bitcoin, and we decided to add its support, as well as introduce a wider group of users to this function ,” said Charles Hamel, head of cryptocurrency business at Opera.

In July 2018, an Ethereum wallet was added to the Opera app for Android. The company explained this decision by its desire to contribute to the development of Web 3.0 and implement the vision of creating a decentralized Internet of the future on the blockchain. Later, the release of a cryptocurrency- oriented browser for iOS and a desktop version with support for a digital wallet took place.

Hamel claims that Opera applications are already optimized for working with Web 3.0, however, the integration of bitcoin required additional resources due to the differences of the first cryptocurrency.

“Bitcoin is a completely different phenomenon, which requires its own infrastructure and has a payment-oriented application scenario,” he added.

Publication date 10/23/2019
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Name Price24H (%)
Bitcoin (BTC)
$7,496.04
-8.49%
Ethereum (ETH)
$158.88
-7.47%
XRP (XRP)
$0.272207
-7.30%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
$208.57
-8.76%
EOS (EOS)
$2.75
-5.84%
Stellar (XLM)
$0.059655
-6.40%
Litecoin (LTC)
$48.99
-9.52%
Cardano (ADA)
$0.036409
-7.49%
Tether (USDT)
$1.00
-0.15%
Monero (XMR)
$53.35
-7.93%
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