The price of Ethereum has fallen to around $3,000, a psychological and technical threshold that has triggered on-chain accumulation signals. MVRV and NUPL indicators, together with purchases by large wallets, outline an “opportunity zone” described by several analysts. The move conditions available liquidity and sets key levels whose outcome will mark the short- and medium-term direction.
Ethereum on-chain indicators and accumulation
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), which compares market value with the average realized cost of investors, shows a decline to -13%, placing Ethereum in a historically discounted band which, according to several analysts, has preceded previous recoveries. MVRV is a ratio that helps identify when the market is trading above or below the holders’ historical average cost, and the current reading reinforces the perception of discounted valuations.
The price of Ethereum is approaching $2,895, the average accumulation cost level of long-term holders, a figure that indicates the asset is 8% away from the realized price of those who have historically “bought the dip.” CryptoQuant notes this group has accumulated in previous cycles and acts as a stable support, suggesting that positioning at these levels remains resilient.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), a metric that measures unrealized gains and losses, has fallen below 0.25, reflecting greater fear among holders and, according to historical records, usually coinciding with phases prior to revaluations. NUPL indicates whether the holders’ base is in unrealized gains or losses, and the current sub-0.25 reading aligns with risk-off sentiment that has often preceded rebounds.
Whale accumulation is also relevant: approximately $1.37 billion in Ethereum was purchased during a 12% drop in November, and since the market restart purchases totaling $417 million have been recorded, evidencing institutional demand and large-wallet activity. Meanwhile, exchange reserves have fallen to 15.6 million ETH and more than 35.7 million ETH are in staking contracts, generating reduced selling pressure and a scarcity effect on supply.
Technical analysis, derivatives and macro risks
On the technical side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 30, a classic oversold signal and potential inflection point. The derivatives market adds a conditional bullish bias: the funding rate turned negative (-0.019% on October 11), which indicates accumulated short positions and leaves room for compression via a short squeeze. Charts show a hidden divergence on the daily, with price forming higher lows while the RSI marks lower lows, a sign of weakening bearish pressure.
However, risks persist: net outflows from institutional funds (including daily redemptions of $428 million and sales attributed to clients of large managers amounting to $80.2 million) and the presence of resistive moving averages (20, 50 and 100 days) that place the confirmation path at closes above $3,350. If support at $3,200 or $2,880 is lost, analysts point to the possibility of the drop extending toward $2,750–$2,620, making these levels critical for validation or invalidation of the bullish thesis.
The convergence of on-chain metrics, whale purchases and technical signals configures a strategic entry window for those looking to accumulate, but confirmation depends on overcoming critical resistances or, conversely, on the loss of supports that would invalidate the bullish thesis. Next verified milestone: a sustained daily close above $3,350 to validate a reversal, or loss of $3,200 which would increase the risk of further correction.
