The cryptocurrency market is facing a critical crossroads as November approaches, with Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest digital asset by capitalization, at the center of the debate. Following a recent drop that placed it below the $4,000 mark, the analytics firm 10x Research has issued a controversial recommendation by suggesting shorting Ethereum in November 2025 over Bitcoin, arguing a weakening of the institutional narrative that supports ETH.
The bearish thesis from 10x Research is based on a fracture of Ethereum’s narrative as a “digital treasury” for institutional capital, a model that, according to the firm, has lost its self-reinforcing capacity. A spokesperson for 10x Research highlighted that market narratives die in silence when new capital stops believing. This perception is reinforced by significant capital outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs, with figures totaling $311.8 million and $243.9 million in the third and fourth weeks of October, respectively. Therefore, the economy of institutional ETH products has experienced a setback of approximately $555 million in net ETF withdrawals in the last month, showing notable caution. Furthermore, analyst Ted Pillows added that BlackRock, one of the major companies, sold $118 million in Ethereum in a single day, indicating a clear downside risk. Moreover, from a technical standpoint, a bearish crossover signal has been identified that has historically preceded large corrections in ETH’s price.
Could a Record of On-Chain Activity Reverse the Downtrend?
On the other hand, on-chain data paints an opposite picture that could disarm the recommendation for shorting Ethereum in November 2025. Data analyst Santiment noted that ETH’s recent slip to $3,700 caused a proliferation of extreme short positions in the derivatives market. Historically, this dominance of shorts often acts as a powerful counter-indicator that precedes a sharp price rally, indicating a likely rebound. Additionally, another analysis firm, CryptoOnchain, highlighted that Ethereum’s “Ecosystem Daily Activity Index” reached a record high in October. This surge in blockchain activity is not purely speculative; instead, it provides a rock-solid fundamental foundation driven by genuine user growth.
Nonetheless, the conclusion that investors should draw is that the Ethereum market heads into November under a tension of forces. On one hand, institutional caution and technical patterns suggest that shorting Ethereum in November 2025 is a prudent move to hedge against traditional capital weakness. On the other hand, increasing on-chain activity and bearish extremism in derivatives project a scenario of accumulation and imminent price recovery. What determines ETH’s price in the coming weeks will depend on which narrative manages to prevail: the liquidity escaping investment products or the inherent strength generated by sustained network usage. One thing is clear: volatility is guaranteed, making November a crucial month for Ethereum’s short-term trajectory.
