The market is assessing whether Ether can consolidate a bullish trend before the end of 2025, contingent on four variables: on-chain activity, fee and staking economy, clarity on roadmap improvements, and institutional flows. These metrics shape liquidity, supply pressure, and leverage appetite, with direct effects on traders, ETH reserve managers, and derivatives providers.
The first signal is network activity. In the last 30 days, transactions decreased by 23% and active addresses fell by 3%, according to on-chain records. Meanwhile, Tron, BNB Chain, and Solana registered increases of at least 34% in transactions and 15% in active addresses, a divergence that erodes the utility narrative and limits price support derived from real usage.
If these drivers improve in tandem, they could unlock a constructive setup; if they weaken, they may sustain downward pressure on price and participation.
Future prospects for Ether
The second variable is the fee economy and its effect on staking. Ethereum fees have fallen 88% since their peak in late 2024, reducing the revenues that support staking yields. With 34.65 million ETH staked (approx. 28.7% of supply), a fee recovery would be the most direct engine to increase supply retention and create supply tension. Staking yields: returns obtained by locking ETH to secure the network.
The third factor is the practical translation of technical improvements into holder value. After the Pectra upgrade (May 7, 2025) —which doubled blob capacity and allowed gas payments with stablecoins— the calendar marks Fusaka for December 3, 2025, within the broader Surge objective of achieving 10x scalability and surpassing 100,000 transactions per second. The market demands clear evidence that these advances will increase adoption and ETH income generation; otherwise, improvements may not coincide with sustained revaluation.
The fourth element is institutional demand. In 2025, significant inflows were registered in Ether spot ETFs, including $5,000 million attributed to one of the main issuers and over $12,000 million accumulated in Q3 2025 across all ETFs, according to flow data. Positioning by major custodians and institutional reserves can provide structural support, but downward pressure on ETH-accumulating vehicles when trading below their mNAV temporarily reduces the incentive to issue new shares and buy more ETH.
If the four variables converge, the market could experience supply tension and increased institutional demand that facilitates a bullish turn. Conversely, persistent low fees and the absence of on-chain growth would maintain downward pressure and delay any sustained trend reversal.
The next verifiable milestone is the Fusaka upgrade scheduled for December 3, 2025; its implementation and the simultaneous behavior of fees, on-chain activity, and ETF flows will be the operational indicators to follow to measure whether Ether can move to a bullish phase before the end of 2025.
