Analysis of futures reports: major players change their shoes for growth

Futures reports are a useful tool for traders that helps to capture the mood among major players and complement the vision of the market situation. Analyst Dmitry Perepelkin and Ekaterina Skobitskaya, the head of the Inception Fund communications department, talk about the mood prevailing in the “whales” camp of the bitcoin market.

Last week was remembered for its high volatility. The FUD around Bitfinex provided excellent opportunities for making money on the difference between the rates of USDT, USDC, PAX and TUSD, and the “smart” business almost completely left the market.

From the COT report for the period of April 23-30, it follows that the institutionalists (Asset Manager) closed 60 short positions, but did not open long ones. So, the ratio in favor of longs is 78%, and the spreading in terms of the safety net is 35 contracts. Within two weeks, the institutionalists close their shorts, and at the moment a significant preponderance on the side of the bulls is clearly visible.

Meanwhile, hedge funds and investment funds (Leveraged Funds) on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hold 2,375 short positions against 1,789 long ones. Note that hedging is almost completely absent. At the same time, one long trader in the Leveraged section has an average of 178.9 contracts, while one short has 139 contracts.

At the Chicago Options Exchange (CBOE) activity is weak. There are still no players in the Asset Managers section, as they switched to CME due to the suspension of the listing of new futures .

At CME, the smart business has almost completely closed its hedge shorts, leaving a small tail in the amount of 46 contracts. Recall that we have been monitoring this player since the summer of 2018: he promptly increased the number of short positions before and during market drawdowns, starting at $ 7,000.

His behavior suggests that he believes drawdowns are less likely than growth – therefore, hedging short positions are no longer appropriate. So, he could hold them to the level of $ 6500 (approximate level of his short averaging) and close them to zero, which would completely work out the traditional hedging. However, closing below $ 6500, he probably expects growth above this level and captures profits from short positions, which cover his costs for their long retention.

If we talk only about the analysis of the futures market, then optimism prevails on it, but do not forget about other analytical tools.

Now it is very interesting to watch the course spread. Notice the gap in view of the recent FUD around Bitfinex. During such periods, stablecoins (such as USDC, TUSD, PAX) are gaining popularity, there is the possibility of a profitable transfer between them. Nevertheless, the USDT remains the most liquid stablebcoin.

At the moment, the demand for long positions is clearly growing. This is confirmed by the interest rate on BTC. This development can be explained by the fact that some traders transfer USDT to Altcoins, buying them with a margin of 3.3x on Bitfinex with BTC.

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