Deutsche Bank predicts that Bitcoin will sit in several central bank vaults before 2030, labeling the coin a “cornerstone of financial security.” Such a shift would alter the mix of sovereign assets and force reserve desks, capital markets and supervisors to adjust. The bank points to growing institutional interest as momentum builds behind the asset.
Deutsche Bank expects Bitcoin’s price swings to shrink until its profile looks like gold’s. At that point, central banks would park a slice of reserves in Bitcoin, keeping gold but adding the digital asset. $35 billion of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs this year signal that large institutions already buy the story.
Gold remains part of the picture — in September 2025 the metal traded at $3,703 per ounce, while Bitcoin posted an average annual return of 18% through mid-2025. Geopolitical shifts — such as Syz-Bank’s forecast of a larger BRICS+ reserve bloc — could speed up the search for dollar alternatives, adding urgency to diversification debates.
Policy divide and operational implications
Views among monetary authorities diverge. The European Central Bank, led by Christine Lagarde, still rejects the idea, pointing to volatility, money laundering risk and uncertain liquidity, and Poland besides Hungary echo the ECB. Roughly twenty three per cent of central banks have taken no position; 11.6 per cent say crypto has gained credibility. Aleš Michl, governor of the Czech National Bank, talks openly of a sizeable Bitcoin allocation, and Ukraine has passed laws that let the treasury study the option.
If central banks add Bitcoin, demand for secure custody and compliance services will rise and market depth will shift. Regulators will need rules for valuation, storage and audit. A spot Bitcoin ETF holds the coin directly and tracks its price without derivatives, underscoring the need for clear supervisory standards as public balance sheets consider digital assets.
The 2030 line works as a deadline: by then, reserve managers and regulators must settle how to store, value and oversee Bitcoin on public balance sheets, or decide against it with clear rationale.
The path to 2030 will test how far central banks are willing to go in diversifying reserves. The outcome will shape operational playbooks for custody, liquidity and supervision, with gold remaining a core holding and Bitcoin a potential addition if credibility and market structure continue to mature.
