Citi forecasts that Bitcoin will trade at $181,000 by the end of 2026. The bank points to net flows into spot exchange traded funds as the chief engine of the move. Institutional purchases through ETFs have shifted the main source of demand away from retail speculation, changing how sensitive price is to each dollar that enters or leaves the funds.
Citi sketches three paths for 2025: a high case at $199,000, a base case at $135,000 and a low case at $64,000 if macro headwinds persist. The 2026 central number remains $181,000, anchoring expectations around steady institutional inflows.
Spot ETFs, which lock up coins for longer holding periods, have replaced older demand channels and have flattened short term volatility while deepening the order book. Because price now tracks ETF flows more closely, the market’s microstructure reflects this persistent bid.
A joint report circulated by UTXO besides Bitwise projects that institutions will send roughly $400 billion – $427 billion into Bitcoin during 2026. In August 2025, Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.2 billion while Ethereum ETFs gained $2.8 billion, a rotation that shows capital switching between the two assets.
Market implications and scenarios
The $135,000, $199,000 and $64,000 marks serve as concrete exit and stop-loss references, mapping risk to Citi’s scenarios. Because price now tracks ETF flows more closely, open interest and option skew swing harder on daily flow data; traders watch the max pain level and the put call ratio to size hedges.
The August outflow from Bitcoin ETFs into Ethereum ETFs cuts Bitcoin’s share of total crypto value and can move altcoin prices. Tight money or a broad sell off in risk assets would push price toward the $64,000 low case, underscoring the link between global liquidity and Bitcoin.
The next checkpoint is the 2025 close. How ETF flows evolve in the coming quarters will decide whether the institutional bid drives Bitcoin to Citi’s targets or whether macro shocks pull it back toward the low case.
