Bitcoin’s (BTC) price shows volatility, but analysts at the firm QCP Capital maintain an optimistic outlook for October. The trading desk, in its latest market report, suggests the recent pullback presents a strategic buying opportunity. They argue that a pivot in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy is the key expected catalyst for a recovery.
QCP Capital bases its analysis on the market’s growing expectation regarding U.S. monetary policy. They note that the market is underestimating the possibility of a rate cut sooner than anticipated, perhaps even before year-end. Currently, uncertainty keeps Bitcoin in a sideways range. The cryptocurrency has shown difficulty breaking resistance at $64,000. Meanwhile, it has tested important support levels near $60,000. Analysts indicate that current pessimism may be exaggerated by fears of “higher for longer” rates. They emphasize that Bitcoin’s network fundamentals, such as hashrate and new address activity, remain robust despite the price action.
Historically, risk assets like Bitcoin respond very positively to looser (dovish) monetary policy. A rate cut by the Fed reduces the appeal of “safe” assets like Treasury bonds. This pushes investors to seek higher yields in other markets, including cryptocurrencies. The Fed’s current restrictive stance, designed to combat inflation, has been the main brake on a sustained bull market in 2024. Therefore, a change in direction would be a significant milestone for the global digital economy. The market has been operating under the shadow of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s decisions. Every inflation or employment data point generates high volatility.
Will We See a Surprise “Bullish October” Thanks to the Fed?
If the Fed surprises the market and eases its stance sooner than expected, BTC’s reaction could be swift and violent. QCP Capital describes this potential scenario as a “surprise rally.” A rate cut would validate the medium-term bullish thesis that many institutional investors hold. Investors operating through spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are closely watching these macroeconomic signals. Institutional demand could reactivate strongly if the Fed gives the green light. The firm suggests the current bearish sentiment is precisely the fuel needed for a short squeeze if the macro news turns favorable. This would put Bitcoin back on track to test its all-time highs above $73,000.
Although October has begun with doubts and sideways price action, the bullish outlook is not off the table. The Bitcoin price prediction by rate cut becomes the central focus of market analysis. Traders remain cautious in the short term, but prepared for significant upside volatility, according to QCP’s analysis. The trading firm reiterates its stance of viewing current dips as accumulation opportunities. The crypto market’s attention is firmly fixed on the upcoming inflation (CPI) data and official communications from the Federal Reserve.
