Bitcoin showed recent movement while analysts warned of liquidation risks for long positions. Gold reached $3.7K for the first time, reopening debate about its safe-haven role and BTC’s “digital gold” narrative, according to specialized media. The shifting relationship between both assets adds uncertainty to BTC’s defensive profile.
Correlation shift between Bitcoin and gold
Between November 2022 and November 2024, Bitcoin and gold moved together, but that connection began to fade in 2025. By late March 2025, gold had risen 16% while Bitcoin had lost more than 6%, according to Institutional Investor. This separation matters because it changes the story about how effective BTC is as a defense against large uncertain conditions.
The short-term connection has been falling. According to Glassnode, the 30-day BTC–gold correlation dropped to -0.53, showing both assets moved in separate ways recently. This change may be due to different factors — Federal Reserve rules, difficulties between countries, and liquidity conditions — as noted by experts. Each factor shifts demand between risky assets and safe assets.
Leverage, derivatives, and event-driven pressures
The derivatives market amplifies exposure and liquidation risks. Jina compiles warnings from analysts about the danger posed by borrowed money, high volatility, and crowded positioning. Rising short liquidations have accompanied price increases in some cases, according to Fintech.tv, but the same dynamic can reverse with leveraged long liquidations, causing sharp declines.
Single events can add temporary pressure on market liquidity and price action. For example, a court allowing the sale of BTC from Silk Road could weigh on flows. These conditions raise the importance of monitoring open interest, key support levels, and upcoming derivatives expirations, which may determine whether liquidations continue to drive market moves.
The lack of connection and the rise in gold suggest a reallocation between traditional safe havens and digital assets. For traders and managers, the main operational risk is leverage, which magnifies both gains and losses and increases the chance of liquidations during quick moves. For long-term investors, the separation calls for a reassessment of BTC’s role in portfolios seeking protection against inflation or geopolitical stress.
In the near term, upcoming derivatives expirations and technical support levels will be key areas to watch, indicating whether liquidation dynamics remain in control as gold’s milestone and BTC’s negative correlation reshape market narratives.
