The two largest crypto assets, Bitcoin and Ether, are seeing intensified selling and buying ahead of the monthly settlement. Several billion dollars of contracts closing on the same day, and past records show such clusters often widen the daily price range. Risk officers and institutional desks must roll or flatten positions before the cut off.
The sheer size of open interest forces dealers to hedge, which shifts spot prices. On 26 September 2025, Bitcoin options worth USD 17.5 billion settled, and the max pain point sat at USD 107,000. A month earlier, on 29 August, the combined Bitcoin but also Ether book reached USD 15 billion, with max pain between USD 115,000 and USD 116,000. A third event recorded on 5 September 2025 placed max pain at USD 112,000 for Bitcoin and at USD 4,400 for Ether. Max pain is the single price that would zero out the greatest number of calls and puts.
Three possible variables — the put call ratio, implied volatility, and one-hour liquidity pockets. Implied volatility jumps in the final 24 hours as dealers square books, reinforcing short-term swings around expiry.
The path of Bitcoin and Ether
Heavy gamma near max pain can steer the spot quote toward that level. Banks and funds lift or hit the bid to stay flat, depth disappears for minutes, and a modest external sell can become a swift five percent drop. Fed rate decisions or sudden geopolitical news either add fuel or absorb the shock, influencing how these flows play out intraday.
The next large expiry lands on 5 September 2025. Portfolio leads will watch the put call ratio as well as the implied volatility curve to resize delta hedges and notional exposure.
