97% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is recording on-chain gains, with between 95% and 97% of coins traded below the current price. The jump comes as the price exceeds $117,000 and approaches $126,000, the level marked as the recent high by Glassnode.
This concentration of unrealized gains in addresses with less than 155 days increases the likelihood of sales to exchanges, a relevant factor for traders, portfolio managers, and derivatives participants.
Glassnode labels the moment as “widespread euphoria.” The report highlights that the price cluster that acted as resistance at $117,000 now functions as support. The accumulation is heterogeneous: the Trend Accumulation Score shows constant buying from addresses controlling between 10 and 1,000 BTC, while whale distribution has declined compared to previous phases.
CryptoQuant estimates that short-term holders (STH) have accumulated about $10.1 billion in unrealized gains and have already transferred significant volumes to exchanges, which anticipates selling pressure.
Context and impact of on-chain profitability
Open interest in futures has grown after crossing the $120,000 mark, and the funding rate has exceeded 8% annualized, reflecting demand for leverage in the derivatives market.
Open interest is the sum of active futures contracts; the funding rate is the periodic payment exchanged between longs and shorts to align the futures price with the spot price; and the Trend Accumulation Score measures the proportion of coins that each group of holders accumulates or distributes.
With most STHs in profit, the likelihood of simultaneous sales and rebalancing increases, which can intensify price movements. High open interest and high funding amplify corrections if the price retreats and triggers forced liquidations of leveraged positions.
Constant buying by holders with 10-1,000 BTC adds depth to the order book and slows the pace of declines. Spot ETFs in the United States attracted about $2.2 billion in the week analyzed, providing extra demand.
The market is entering a sensitive zone. Confirmation of support at $117,000 and the evolution of open interest and ETF flows will be decisive for the direction during the week of October 8, 2025. Traders and managers should monitor these levels, the funding rate, and STH movements to adjust risk and position size.
