USDC’s market share is rising, and Bernstein argues it could become the market leader. The firm set a $230 price target for Circle contingent on USDC sustaining a 30% long-term market share, a view that affects institutional investors, crypto derivatives traders, and the company’s value. The projection links Circle’s valuation to adoption of its stablecoin and to the regulatory backdrop.
Bernstein’s projection and valuation
Bernstein states that rules compliance and liquidity will increase USDC use, supporting its $230 price target for Circle, as a note cited by experts indicates. The estimate includes a long crypto bull market through 2027, a scenario under which the supply of USDC would rise to $173,000 million according to the same projection.
The detail is important because it ties the issuer’s value to its main product’s market share. Managers must judge execution risk and dependence on the market cycle as they assess this case.
Market context and data points
More recent data provide a reference point: in April 2025, Tether (USDT) held around 66% of the stablecoin market, while USDC held 28%, as cited in the compilation. That difference shows that, despite growth, USDC starts from a lower capital position, and a move to leadership would require major changes in demand and rules.
Some metrics are not detailed in the note: realized capital and flow numbers are not included, and mNAV (enterprise value multiple over BTC’s NAV) is not in the source consulted. The compilation mentions that Circle’s IPO was set at $31 per share, but this point could not be found in the note.
- Bernstein sets a $230 price target for Circle based on a 30% long-term USDC market share.
- USDC supply is projected at $173,000 million in a bullish scenario through 2027.
- Nansen estimated in April 2025 a market share of about 66% for USDT and about 28% for USDC.
- Circle’s IPO was noted at $31 per share in the compilation, though not found in the Bernstein note.
Drivers of adoption and model assumptions
USDC’s current strength comes from its use in DeFi and partnerships, including with Coinbase, as a synthesis of sources indicates. Bernstein models situations where greater rule transparency acts as a driver for adoption, reinforcing the market-share path implied in its valuation.
The supply projection highlights possible effects on Circle’s liquidity and balance sheet, though the note does not provide realized capital or flow data. This underscores the dependence on regulatory clarity and sustained market demand.
Market implications and risks
If USDC gains share, competition with USDT would intensify, likely increasing volume in spot and derivatives markets and changing funding and basis dynamics. For investors, the main risks are dependence on a bull market and on favorable rule approvals, while leverage in derivatives could increase losses if growth slows.
Conclusion
The milestone to watch is how USDC’s market share evolves against USDT over the next quarters. The outcome of the bull market projected through 2027 will be key to testing Bernstein’s case.
