Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argues that a shift in Federal Reserve policy to yield curve control (YCC) could drive Bitcoin to $1 million by 2028. He links this scenario to how monetary policy interacts with scarce assets and investor behavior. His comments on September 17, 2025, have sparked a debate about the Fed’s role and the broader market impact.
Context and Impact
Hayes’s thesis ties the capping of long-term yields to a weakening dollar, suggesting capital would rotate into limited-supply assets like Bitcoin. He contends this would have clear consequences for portfolio positioning and market risk across asset classes. He further notes that, beyond its two headline mandates, the Fed holds a less-discussed purpose to “moderate long-term interest rates”, which could justify YCC.
Japan has used YCC since 2016. Under YCC, the central bank sets or caps long-term debt yields, pushing real yields lower. According to Hayes, this would accelerate the loss of the dollar’s purchasing power and encourage flows into scarce assets, linking policy directly to potential price pressure on Bitcoin. Hayes also outlines nearer-term price markers: a $250,000 target for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 with a possible drop to $100,000 during economic stress, as ainvest reported.
Other analysts, ainvest also stated, see a 2025 consensus between $130,000 and $250,000, with institutional adoption and ETF-driven inflows suggesting that regular money movements can amplify price swings. Beyond Bitcoin, Hayes expressed a preference for Ethereum and floated a potential $20,000 price for ETH, while expecting a less intense altcoin season than in 2021. These views expand his broader market take and how capital could rotate across digital assets.
Implications and Main Points
If the Fed adopts YCC, liquidity conditions and the carry cost of bonds would change, potentially increasing demand for limited-supply assets and raising Bitcoin’s implied volatility. For investors, this implies heightened leverage risk and sensitivity to policy signals, while treasury managers may face pressure to rethink allocations between fixed income and crypto.
- Maximum prediction: $1 million by 2028 if the Fed implements YCC.
- Intermediate target: $250,000 near the end of 2025, with a possible drop to $100,000 because of economic corrections.
- Main reason: adoption of YCC and the dollar losing value, which helps assets with limited supply.
- Risk: high volatility and sensitivity to Fed decisions; leverage increases losses.
The immediate focal point is any formal shift in the Fed’s policy direction and composition, with the confirmation of Stephen Miran noted in the discussion. The end of 2025 stands as a reference date to assess whether institutional flows and monetary policy validate these expectations.
