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Analysis of the cryptocurrency market. The forecast of the course of Bitcoin and Altcoins



Bitcoin continues to intrigue the community with its ability to move without a certain dynamics in recent months. Borders, which we designated earlier, – $ 6000− $ 6800 – remain relevant, because the price has not gained strength in order to break through them to one of the sides.

Within the framework of the current week, one can even observe the predominance of movement near the value of $ 6,600: now down by $ 100– $ 150, then upwards by the same amount. It should be noted that from the point of view of the fundamental component of reasons for price movement, there are constantly any grounds for the development of a trend.

But, in fact, this news does not affect the price after the SEC postponed indefinitely the decision on the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust ETF application or, in simpler words, on the start of trading in the ETF Bitcoin fund.

After this event, two more meetings of state commissioners took place. At the same time, according to their results, the only decision was constantly made – to postpone consideration due to the lack of information at the current moment and concerns about the safety of investors' funds. Recall that the next meeting of SEC commissioners may take place before the end of 2018.

The news about the creation of a startup Circle (Circle owned by Goldman Sachs, the largest bank in terms of assets) based on the US dollar – USD Coin (USDC) became the most positive event of the final week. Compared to other peers, like TrueUSD or Tether (USDT) , the main competitor of young stablecocks, this asset will be provided in a 1: 1 ratio with physical dollars and will be audited in proven companies, unlike USDT, funds in the accounts of which are questioned by investors.

As if by chance, on the same days, the media began to exaggerate in the media, which was not yet confirmed, although by no one disproved, information about possible problems at the Puerto-Rican bank Noble Bank International, where Tether funds were previously located. But later it became known that the affiliated companies Tether limited and the Bitfinex exchange managed to withdraw funds in the amount of $ 3 billion to another financial organization.

Evaluating the current situation, the CEO of Binance cryptobirth – one of the leaders in the CoinMarketCap rating – Changpen Zhao is sure that the cryptocurrency market will start growing soon, because there is no “bearish” market now.

He is echoed by a no less legendary person on Wall Street – Mohammed el-Arian. He did not give a forecast about the cost of Bitcoin before the end of the year than many market gurus have been trying to surprise in recent months, but he inspired investors by saying that "cryptographers have not died … we will see widespread acceptance of cryptocurrencies by the private and public sector in the near future." At the same time, el-Ariane confirmed readiness to buy Bitcoin only from the level of $ 5000.

It is also necessary to note the statements of experts of another largest financial organization from Wall Street – Bank Bank of America (BoA). They believe that blockchain technology could potentially create a new market with a capitalization of more than $ 7 billion for real estate companies, cloud computing, and supplies, for example, for Amazon and Microsoft.

In addition to the statements of these significant individuals about the interest in the world of the blockchain and cryptocurrencies, there is one more argument in favor of their acquisition. Namely, the volume of bitcoins stored on the top 100 wallets of whales.

It can be noted that the owners of wallets in a falling market do not sell their bitcoins a little, but, on the contrary, actively acquire them. Thus, 45,834 bitcoins were sold from 8 whale wallets, while on September 14 wallets the balance increased by 109,522 bitcoins.

Apparently, the largest holders of cryptocurrencies tend to only accumulate in anticipation of future growth in value, in contrast to ordinary investors who are trying to catch the trend wave. And what is the situation at this time on the graphs – consider below.

Bitcoin (BTC)

And now let's evaluate the current situation from the point of view of technical analysis . The graph below shows the development of movement in the framework of the technical analysis of the Forks of Andrews and, provided the support at $ 6,500 is below support, we can expect to reach the $ 6,400 area with the potential to achieve in the future and a cluster of $ 6,000– $ 6,111– $ 6,200.

But if the decline will have the character of a short correction and over the coming weeks there will be buy signals, then we should expect growth in the area of ​​resistance of $ 6,670, $ 6,820 and $ 7,000, where the upper limit of the forks now passes.

Note the narrowing of the boundaries of the Bollinger lines (indicated in the graphs above and below in blue), which usually precedes the beginning of a powerful movement. Therefore, do not forget about longer-term goals. The development of a movement below $ 6,000 will allow consolidation in the form of strong support at $ 5,600 and $ 5,776– $ 5,880.

An alternative option with a break above $ 7000 will give grounds for testing areas of $ 7,200 and consolidating $ 7,375– $ 7,500– $ 7,800. To argue about other goals will be the most rational only in terms of well-established trends.

Ethereum and other altcoins

The market of altcoins continues to move without landmarks, therefore, as traders joke, now it “moves to the right”. There are also no interesting trading ideas on the air, and the price of Ethereum is near the value of $ 220, where the 200-period simple moving average on the four-hour chart is now located.

After the realization of the forecast of reaching the levels of $ 230 and $ 240 with the subsequent rollback back, expectations are being held about the possibility of a new attempt to collapse to levels of $ 180 and a cluster of $ 193– $ 200. But in the case of the development of a powerful collapse below $ 180, we should expect a move to the marks of $ 160, $ 131 and $ 100.

In the longer term, we can expect a departure from current values ​​to the area of ​​resistance at $ 251, $ 270 and $ 300. Finally confirm the idea of ​​the development of a new trend for rising growth above $ 340, where the line of 23.6% correction along the Fibonacci lines is located.

And finally, a bit of positive: John McAfee confirmed his willingness to run for the presidency in the US in 2020. Although he understands that he will not take the chair of the head of the country, he promises to popularize the new digital economy.