The HBAR price reached the breakdown target at $0.113 but has shown no sustained recovery, leaving the token exposed to further losses. Technical indicators and exchange flow data point to a likely continuation of the downtrend, with a realistic short-term target near $0.095 — roughly 16% below the breakdown level.
HBAR touched the $0.113 level, marking a completed head-and-shoulders breakdown target that normally signals trend confirmation rather than reversal. The chart pattern was followed by a confirmed “death cross”, a technical setup that occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average and is commonly interpreted as a signal of sustained downward momentum.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has fallen to a yearly low of -0.32, indicating pronounced capital outflow from the asset. This deeply negative CMF reading suggests institutional and larger holders are disengaging and likely reducing exposure rather than accumulating.
Spot flow data shows a reversal from a brief net outflow on 14 de dic. to renewed net inflows to exchanges. That flip from outflows back to inflows signals tokens moving toward venues where they can be liquidated, and it erodes the fragile case for a near-term recovery. The $0.113 level now functions as a psychological support, but the absence of meaningful buying pressure from significant players weakens its ability to hold.
Technical signals point lower for HBAR
A likely immediate destination for selling pressure is the $0.095 liquidity zone. The projection to that level represents about a 16% decline from the breakdown target and aligns with the current balance of technical and flow-based evidence. Short-lived rallies at or near current levels should be treated cautiously, since the current market structure favors distribution over accumulation.
“Smart money” positioning appears biased toward divestment rather than contrarian accumulation, which increases the risk that apparent recoveries are bull traps designed to lure retail participants into leveraged positions. Traders using leverage should note that margin amplifies both gains and losses and that technical confirmations here favor downside scenarios.
Market participants seeking signals for a regime change should look for sustained capital inflows and a reversal in CMF from negative territory; absent that, the path of least resistance remains downward. Any tactical long positions would require strict risk controls and clearly defined stop levels to limit exposure to a further drop toward $0.095.
