Today, a colossal Bitcoin options expiry and Ethereum expiry valued at over $16 billion is being executed on the Deribit platform. This financial event represents one of the largest monthly derivatives closes of the year, significantly surpassing volumes recorded last week due to the monthly rollover of key contracts. Traders and investors must closely watch “max pain” levels, as both positionings could drastically impact price action in the short term within the market.
In detail, the leading cryptocurrency heads this massive event with contracts to close valued at approximately $13.28 billion today. The strike price known as “max pain” sits at $100,000, which suggests a strong bullish inclination despite the recent turbulence that shook the charts this week. On the other hand, the current put-to-call ratio is 0.54, indicating that more traders are betting on future gains than losses, with a call open interest of 94,539 contracts clearly dominating the board over put options.
Will year-end volatility be able to drive prices toward new all-time highs?
On the other hand, Deribit analysts highlight that the recent market pullback played a critical role in shaping current positions. Investors took advantage of the drop from highs to take profits on short positions, maintaining cautious protections against the spot price. Likewise, the dominant strategy of the week has been a bullish “Call Condor,” seeking to capture a significant rally towards the end of December, popularly known as the “Santa rally.” This options structure is designed to maximize profits if the asset closes the year between $106,000 and $112,000.
Furthermore, Ethereum accompanies this movement with its own expiry of $1.73 billion and a max pain level of $3,400. Unlike the main cryptocurrency, ETH’s positioning is less extreme and presents a lighter downside risk compared to its peer. However, there are evident tensions between long-term bullish conviction and immediate caution through overwriting strategies that limit explosive short-term gains while traders watch the asset’s consolidation.
Finally, the outcome of this day could trigger rapid shifts in liquidity conditions for both leading digital assets. If spot prices move toward max pain levels, market makers could exert dampening effects on price action during the session. Thus, the market remains split between defensive hedges and bold bets, waiting to see if these expiries act as volatility accelerants in the annual close or simply dissolve into the order book.
