Bitcoin regained ground above $106,000 as clear signs emerged that the U.S. administrative shutdown is about to conclude. The move amplified market and network chatter and is especially relevant for institutional traders and managers seeking to re‑deploy retained liquidity. A 60‑40 Senate vote on Nov. 10, 2025 is interpreted as the immediate catalyst, reopening expectations of flows into digital assets.
Since Oct. 1, 2025 the federal government entered a shutdown that extended about 40 days and became the longest in recent history. Around 900,000 employees were furloughed and another 700,000 worked without pay, magnifying the economic and operational footprint across agencies.
The interruption generated a temporary loss of key economic data, amplifying volatility due to the lack of regular signals for prices and monetary policy. In that context, Bitcoin bounced from levels below $100,000 to surpass $106,000, reflecting a search for alternatives when official information becomes scarce.
Historically the end of shutdowns has coincided with rallies in Bitcoin, with cited increases of 96% and 157%, and the 2018‑19 rally preceding a rise close to 300%. On other occasions responses were mixed (e.g., 2013 vs. 2018‑19), which calls for operational caution despite the current bullish tone.
Implications and projections for Bitcoin
The imminent end of the shutdown may bring a return of liquidity and institutional flow via ETFs, increasing demand and reducing bid‑ask spreads. Whale accumulation and the reactivation of ETF flows are signs of more institutional positioning, though leverage in derivatives can amplify both gains and losses.
Analysts point to an immediate liquidity target at $112,000 and a short‑term projection around $123,516 for Nov. 13, 2025. Scenarios between $125,000 and $150,000 before year‑end are cited, and one financial institution reaffirmed a $200,000 target for the 2025 close. These estimates combine technical tools such as Fibonacci retracements and models like stock‑to‑flow. Definition: stock‑to‑flow is a model that relates an asset’s annual new supply to its existing stock to estimate potential price.
The next operational milestone is the price window through Nov. 13, 2025. For traders and managers, the focus is on monitoring the reopening of institutional flows and the confirmation of macro data that would support any extension of the rally, acknowledging the risk of a rapid reversal if such confirmation does not materialize.
