Analytical resource CoinMetrics.io conducted a study to find out if there is any connection between the dynamics of Bitcoin trading volumes and the seasons. As a result, experts concluded that the indicators of the first cryptocurrency are not subject to seasonality.
First, here are the raw numbers, formatted on a log view, because they are radically different between 2014 and 2018. Hmm … no obvious trend pic.twitter.com/bZdhEfwTKl
– CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) October 28, 2018
CoinMetrics estimated the data for 2014-2018, however, given the significant difference between the rally and bear market periods over the past five years, it was not possible to detect a clear trend initially.
Then, analysts decided to convert trading volumes into a percentage of the total capitalization of the asset, and found that the average of 2% [green curve] practically does not change from month to month.
The green line above. Looks like there is no seasonality. Exchange volume averages about 2% of bitcoin's market cap.
– CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) October 28, 2018
Earlier, CoinMetrics.io co-founder Nick Carter proposed to abandon market capitalization as a tool for estimating aggregate wealth in Bitcoin and introduce the concept of “realized capitalization”, which is based on the aggregation of UTXO [exits of unspent transactions] taking into account the price of bitcoin during their last activity.
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